Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2023

Cost estimation of the use of low-carbon fuels in prospective scenarios for air transport

Résumé

Using low-carbon energies is a major lever to reduce the CO2 emissions of aviation. Some low-carbon energy carriers consist in fuels that are drop-in and require few modifications to current aircraft, like biofuels and electrofuels. Hydrogen is another low-carbon fuel that would be relevant in the long term only since it requires significant aircraft modifications (non-drop-in fuel). In both cases, several production pathways exist with radically different impacts in terms of cost of production and life-cycle CO2 emissions. Literature is already exhaustive on prospective decarbonization scenarios for aviation and low-carbon fuel production cost estimates. In this paper, an open-source simulation framework named CAST is enhanced by a module that links low-carbon fuels production cost to their respective consumption in given scenarios. Hence, the cost of a custom decarbonization scenario is evaluated. Results show that the cost of the integration of low-carbon fuels in this scenario would represent around 40 % of airlines revenues in 2050, while the energy demand growth would necessitate important capital investments, regularly increasing to 130 Bn e in 2050. A sensitivity analysis shows that these cost estimates are subject to large uncertainties.


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Dates et versions

hal-04895405 , version 1 (25-01-2025)

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Antoine Salgas, Thomas Planès, Scott Delbecq, Florian Simatos, Gilles Lafforgue. Cost estimation of the use of low-carbon fuels in prospective scenarios for air transport. AIAA SciTech 2023 Forum, Jan 2023, National Harbor, MD & ONLINE, United States. ⟨10.2514/6.2023-2328⟩. ⟨hal-04895405⟩
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